Mortgage Market Updates
What you have stumbled upon will be a wonderfully simplified, often crass breakdown on current events in the real estate and mortgage market. Please enjoy, don’t take it too seriously, and contact me if you have any questions at all. Thursdays are my day to shine, but if I miss one or two… put the claws away. Sometimes, I have to work.
Market Update - 12/12/24
Good morning,
Feels good to be shifting into Christmas and holiday mode. The most wonderful time of year. The time of year where you can have a buzz nearly any time of day and respond with “hey, it’s Christmas.” The time of year where you can flip flop between panic attacks and complete calorie induced euphoria. It’s really beautiful. The only issue, really is that the bond market is still very active. Well, that, and my new doctor said I’ve got to “cut back” on the chicken wings… okay witch doctor.
This has been a sharpened candy cane of a week. Little painful, still sweet enough. The angry little elves of the FOMC, led by head elf Jerome Powell, had their beady little eyes fixed on the CPI report this week. Obviously that was going to be a major influence point for the decision on the Fed rate this month. CPI did come in up 0.3%, as expected, which, like Stacy’s mom, was a hot little number. But then, like a soothing glass of triple bourbon eggnog, there emerged a tiny little glimpse of hope. Owners equivalent rent. Like the Omega-3s to my elevated cholesterol levels, it brought some relief. This figure came in with the most promising figures since 2021, showing some downward pressure on inflation in the housing sector. This further boosted the shot of the 0.25% rate cut this month. Today, PPI was released, and go figure – a hot little tamale. We saw the bond market begin to show signs of a selloff, until jobless claims came in with a spike and help dampen the blow.
Overall, this week could have been a massive selloff, but ended up essentially a see-saw thanks to some small buy mighty data points. The rate cut in December seems all but baked in. Next week, we get to see what all of you sick shopaholics have bene up to with retail sales followed by the Fed meeting Wednesday. Another big week!
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 12/5/24
Good morning,
Thanksgiving was what I expected, controlled chaos. As I slathered enough garlic compound butter to raise the dead, then give them a heart attack, on my big ol’ bird, I anxiously braced for impact. The wine dulled the sounds of the children destroying my carpet, and we managed to not only survive the hosting, but have some fun as always. What I was looking for after that, was a relatively calm week back at work. That is not exactly what we saw.
I tried to mind my business and dry out after basting in booze for a weekend like a turkey in brine, but each time a turned the TV on the headlines just progressively got more insane. North Korea declares martial law, French government actively collapsing, and a CEO assassinated. Shew. I know we love global socio-economic chaos in the mortgage world, but please one crisis at a time. That said, the distress did help balance out some of the major data points this week, and this was a BIG week (with more to come tomorrow). JOLTS data was released first, and that did not exactly give us a nudge in the direction, but fortunately we got that North Korean martial law bump to offset. ADP Payroll data did come in cool, and help keep rates steady to slightly down for the week. Then, naturally, that overcooked turkey Jerome Powell got in front of a microphone and reiterated that the US economy is strong and we need to be very cautious with our rate cut approach. This took the air out of the room like telling Nana you’re an atheist. Even with jobless claims up a tad, we are seeing a bit of a sell off today.
Tomorrow is set to be the biggest data day in sometime, though. At 8:30, we will see Unemployment and Jobs data (as well as those fun revisions they like to make a month later). The market has been trading a bit sporadically, seemingly anxious to see these data points, as these will be a MAJOR point of discussion for the Fed at the next meeting to decide whether to cut 0.25% or pause. Put those jammies on inside and out and backwards people!
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 11/21/24
Good morning,
‘Tis the season for family gatherings, overeating, drinking to cope with the family gatherings, gambling on some of the worst football games of the season, and joy… of course. I really do love the holidays, and Thanksgiving really scratches an itch, as it pretty much lets you indulge in all of your vices before 3 PM. Much like the bond market next Thursday, I too will be observing the Holiday and not sending a market update email, so I figured we had better reflect on the season now.
This week has been quiet, but that kind of scary quiet, like you know the kids are sneaking out for a “walk” before the turkey is ready. There’s been some see-sawing, but mostly small changes as there have not been major data points this week. Jobless claims came in this morning and tried to start some controversy, like Aunt Beth bringing up voter fraud at the dinner table. Luckily, despite claims coming in light, the cooler heads prevailed with inflation data from the Philly Fed index ALSO coming in cool. Other than that, we have really been at the mercy of investors and bond sale performance this week. It has been a nice change of pace, but have no fear… next week we are going to earn our Turkey Tinis.
Next week, we essentially will be shooting buffalo sauce without a Tums chaser. Fed minutes Tuesday followed by GDP and PCE Wednesday. It will be an important week of data, especially with the odds of December rate cut trickling to about 55% (prior we were close to 85/90%). So, let’s focus on what matters this upcoming week – time spent loving, and in some cases tolerating, the most important people in our lives.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 11/14/24
Good morning,
Much like my health journey, this week has been a lot of back and forth with little to no progress (if anything, some negative). I am on the tail end of a severe case of the sniffles, so I will keep this short and sweet as I possibly can. I will not let my battle against my stuffy nose prevent me from spoon feeding you the important updates on the mortgage banking world this week.
Volatility continues to whip and nae nae after the election, with no sure data points pointing towards lower rates in the short term. On Wednesday, CPI data was released. Despite it being right on the screws in terms of projections, it is pointing to a stall in inflation’s trickle downward. The trend is getting sideways on us, and inflation in procrastinating like me waiting to make a doctor’s appointment “until I am healthy.” PPI data was released today, and this data came in a tad hotter than the previous months, further reinforcing the trend of inflation remaining just higher than the Fed’s 2% goal, like biting off just over half the gummy. This brings us to tomorrow. Retail sales. A measure of just how spendy you all have been feeling. Based on my performance at the Harry Potter gift shop after a few spiked butterbeers, I would say things may not look so good. We are projected to come down by 0.1%, so let us keep our fingers crossed for that headed into the weekend. The human furby, Jerome Powell, did manage to create some further volatility today when he made sure to carve out some time to let everyone know that the economy is looking strong and they will not be in a hurry to lower rates…
Despite the seemingly doom and gloom messages above, we did not really lose much ground this week. The market managed to perform well enough to offset some of the data driven losses. Traders are still betting on a 0.25% cut in December, but we could see that shift after Powell’s statement today.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 11/7/24
Good morning,
You know what makes me nauseous? The thought of raking leaves in 80 degree weather. I am on a strike of leaf raking until the temperature matches the season. Apologies to my neighbor's very well manicured lawn, hope the wind does not blow too hard on my side (although, selfishly, that's less raking for me). It has been a crazy week as a country, but I feel like that is something we can all agree on. I don't want turkey in a tank top, I want to eat stuffing while jammed into a q-zip. Anywho, let's chat about the current market a bit.
The NFL trade deadline was Tuesday, along with the US Election, and the market was seeing a TON of volatility leading up to that day. Let me reiterate, we do not talk politics here. We talk food, market updates, and hangovers. That said, leading up to the election, the bond market was falling like me trying to step over the dogs after my final couch whiskey of the evening (bringing rates up in the interim). The selloff is generally associated with the thought that the results of the election could bring about some inflationary pressure with the new regime, keeping rates higher for longer. The market now goes into digestion mode, which I know personally, can be a little uncomfortable. The market will likely continue to be volatile over the next few weeks, with investors making bets on what policies will actually be put in place, and how they will affect inflation in 2025. Thankfully, today, we do have a little Alka-Seltzer to settle the proverbial tummy of the bond market. That is the Fed meeting. At 2 PM, we will likely be seeing a 25bp cut. Again, this is not some cure to hikes in rates over the past few weeks, but based on the market performance this morning it is bringing about some temporary relief- the ranch to the current hot wing we are working on.
Next week brings about our fun friends CPI and retails sales data. Obviously, now more than ever, with some economic policy changes on the horizon, the Fed will be LAZER focused on inflation data and bringing that figure in line while tip toeing the cliff of recession. I would expect the rate cuts to be carefully analyzed meeting by meeting, and in slower, smaller increments. That said, I remain confident that the mortgage rates will continue to trickle down, but we are likely to continue having some bumps along the way.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 10/31/24
Good morning,
Ghosts, ghouls, goblins, presidential elections, jack-o-lanterns, bond market selloffs, zombies, 10 YR yield spikes... what a truly terrifying Halloween. The mortgage rate market seems to be as nauseously anxious as we all are for the results of Tuesday's election, and we are seeing that in the truly erratic selloff occurring over the past several weeks. Not much we can do about that though, so do what makes you happy. For example, I am going to drink several fishbowl sized glasses of Aperol spritzes, eat pasta for lunch, and put a wig on my bulldog for Halloween. Some call that coping, I call it Thursday.
What we are seeing right is spooky stuff. Despite some relatively positive data points for us this week, we are still seeing the mortgage rate market getting monster mashed every morning. GDP came in light, jobless claims high, JOLTS light - should see some nice drops in the 10 YR yield right Jack? Wrong. The market is refusing us any treats, like me on my 3rd beer to the teenagers who ask for candy with no costume on. If you are old enough to feel embarrassed about putting a costume on, you are too old to trick or treat. Turns out, the market is pretty much laser focused on the election results currently, and absolutely steamrolling over the data points that typically would put the brakes on the upward movement in rates. We don't get political on this show, so I will end my rant there, and wish everyone some enjoyable, sleepless, anxiety ridden evenings for the next week or so.
We do still have a few (typically) big data points tomorrow: Jobs and Unemployment. Keep your eyes peeled for those, as despite the volatility we are seeing, we still need to root for the data to trend in the right direction for rates long term.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 10/24/24
Good morning,
A brief list of things more pleasant than opening my computer lately: Riding a pogo stick with glass in my shoes. Riding a beach cruiser with a seat made of nails down Greenmount Ave. Telling the server I actually ordered my sandwich with no mayo. Going on a "health kick" through the holiday season. Getting a work call after the gummy kicks in. I could go on for literal hours, but we just do not have that kind of time.
If you have my voodoo doll on you, please put a beer in its hand. The selloff of the bond market continues this week, and it's getting to the point where the pain in almost starting to feel good. I'm going Stockholm Syndrome on the mortgage rate market. It was a light week of data, but there is a standing belief that the economy is remaining strong and resilient - which has led to the biggest bond market selloff during a rate cut cycle since 1995. The members of the FOMC literally couldn't shut their mouths and just be cool if we duct taped a sock in their mouths and put them in a walk in fridge. Truly amazing. Several Fed members spoke out from the peanut gallery this week reiterating the strength of the economy, which leads us to believe the Fed will be thinking of the need to be cautious about rate cuts occurring too quickly. The 10 YR yield ticked over 4.20% (lol), and rates moved up alongside it.
Bring your biggest helmet and strongest liquor back out of your top drawer of your desk (jk if you are reading this HR- I definitely don't keep emergency booze in my desk and I would never drink it in the office if I did), because next week is our gauntlet week. JOLTS, GDP, PCE, Jobs and Unemployment. Enough to make a man throw up. Let's all enjoy a beautiful weekend, blissfully ignorant of the potential damage that could be done next week. That said, if even a couple of those data points spin the right way, we could undo some of the damage from the last few weeks, so say a prayer.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 10/17/24
Good morning,
As I approach another year 5' 10" above the dirt, I am left feeling reflective. I was really hoping the bond market would have accomplished more by the time I was 30. Sure, it's made some progress, but every time it seems like its on the right path, boom, it falls right back into its toxic ways. Like a 29 year old trying to tell himself he's still got it, the 10 YR yield goes out with his buddy mortgage rates, and they get high again. Its stressful for all of us concerned mortgage bankers, realtors, and prospective buyers, but we all know the market will get on the right path one day soon.
It has been a ROUGH few weeks for mortgage rates, and this week has been no different. Today was our only MAJOR data point, retail sales. Go figure, all those new Amex's we opened are getting red hot in our wallets, because spending figures were higher than Cheech and Chong at Coachella. The 10 YR is spiking like Greg Focker in pool volleyball as we speak, and rates are moving up along with it. The data as of late is really supporting a strong, and spendy economy, which is no good for inflations slow march downward. Unfortunately, there is not a ton of market movers next week to help make up ground, so we have to keep our fingers crossed for some global economic strife to get people shifting back towards the safe haven of bonds.
As it stands, we still have a good shot to cut 25bps in the next meeting, but the hold is not off the table completely. The overall trend will be lower mortgage rates long term, but in the short we are still seeing high volatility and are in a pretty tough upward movement at the moment.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 10/10/24
Good morning,
This was one of those mornings you just did not want to open the computer. Let's just say this has been a week where club soda with a lime twist was not strong enough. Sauntering into my office, and cracking open the Surface Pro felt like opening a Jack in the Box where Jerome Powell was going to pop out with double middle fingers.
CPI day is never fun, but it feels a lot like a when my brother used to put Icy Hot on my eyelids this week. This week, floating a loan has been as safe as floating on a Dollar Tree pool toy down a hippo infested Luangwa River deep in the heart of Zambia. Last week's strong Jobs figures (I should say the reported figures were strong), dumped gasoline on the smoldering dreams of another 50bp cut at the next meeting. The economic strength shown by the recent data points will have Fed most likely deciding between a 25bp cut, or potentially a pause to see how quickly they want to bring rates down. We all know they want to bring rates down, but not at a rate that would interfere with the goal of 2% inflation. Thankfully CPI did cool in September, from 2.5 to 2.4%, but the expected rate was 2.3% - so it was actually a little hotter than anticipated. That said, the jobless claims also reported this morning were well above expected (likely due to some of the fallout from the hurricanes in FL). Fortunately, the jobless claims, so far, have have acted as the proverbial comforter locking in the smell of the CPI fart underneath and preventing further severe rate deterioration this week.
It looks like we will be heading into the weekend of an uptick in rates throughout the week again. There are some important data points next week (mainly retail sales) that will give us a chance to chew some of this back. Let's hope everyone else has not been drinking 6 cocktails and online shopping to feel better like me.
As always have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 10/3/24
Good morning,
I don't have a crystal ball. Probably never will. I go to bed every night and pray to wake up 35 butterbeers deep at a pub outside Hogwarts. Probably won't happen. What I do know for a fact is that rates are either going to go up, down, or stay the same. It is my favorite response to "where do you see rates next week?" Yes, I can give you a very well thought and fact supported response on where I see rates trending over the course of a month, quarter or year - but at the end of the day so many factors impact mortgage rates on a day to day basis. I do think rates are going to continue to trend down over the course of this year into next, but right now we are in a highly volatile climate and on a day to day basis they are either going to go up, down or stay the same.
Unfortunately for everyone reading this, right now we are going up. This week has had more volatility than a Trump rally in Hampden, and rates are feeling that. The 10 YR has gotten higher than Method Man at a Snoop Dogg concert since we last spoke, currently sitting above 3.8%. ADP reports came out yesterday, and they missed the mark, with about 20K more jobs than expected. We took a beating in the market, even though we all know they will revise it down next month. Powell opened is fossilized mouth again and insisted the economy was strong, and they would be slow rolling rate reductions. That was like lemon juice in an open cut for the spiking 10 YR yield. Overall a tough week thus far, but there are some data points tomorrow morning that could either turn this all around, or send us into the weekend with our tails between our legs.
Friday morning kicks off at 8:30 AM with the Jobs and Unemployment reports. Once again, I come to you all to light a candle and pray to your gods of finance that we see high unemployment and low job creation. We all know the mortgage market loves pain. I do want to reiterate that we are in a much better place than just a few months ago. The trend is in the right direction, but that will not stop me from bringing you the drama of the weekly volatility here on the streets.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 9/19/24
Good morning,
Coming back from Ocean City to Baltimore after a few days really is about as gentle of a come down as having a cup of Sleepy Time tea and your significant other waking you up with a smelling salt and smack in the nose. I'm not saying OCMD is Nantucket, but it's got it's charm and enough alcohol mixed with citrus to transport yourself anywhere you can imagine. The arrival home brought with it the smack of anxiety that is standard, but a new degree of anxiety laid just beneath surface... Jerome Powell announcing the firs rate cut in 4 years.
We all knew it was coming. You had been told its "baked in" more times than the muffin man, but very few people saw the 50bps cut coming. Every lender in America ran to their computer to pretend they were Adam Schefter for a day and break the news, while simultaneously explaining to the world that mortgage rates did not come down 50bps. My phone rumbled all afternoon like the muffler on the Cutlass that tailgates me down Charles Street every afternoon. Over and over I explained that this IS good news for rates long term, but we are not going to see a dramatic short term drop in mortgage rates. The Federal Fund Rate is going to have a direct and immediate impact on your shorter term debts, like car notes. The 10 YR yield continues to be one of the best benchmarks for mortgage rate trends. That said, the beginning of a cutting cycle IS great news for rates, and will most certainly lead to mortgage rates coming down along with the Fed rate cut cycle, but they do not move in lock step.
Overall, we left this Fed meeting with good news. The 10 YR has remaining around 3.7% for now, but we have an outlook for further rates cuts before the end of the year, and continued cuts into next year. Next week, we go back to looking at our GDP and PCE data points (Thursday and Friday respectively). Doesn't have the same luster as the sleepless nights of heartburn leading up to a Fed meeting, but just as important for rates.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 9/12/24
Good morning,
I would not consider myself a gym rat, elliptical assassin, or treadmill killer by anyone's standard. My workout routine is a lot like pushing a boulder up a hill every few days and then letting it fall back down. I'm sure there's a Greek myth about that, but that is beside the point. I really blame the siren's song of margaritas that calls me as I walk into and out of the gym for that lack of consistency. Unlike my gym "habit", we are seeing more consistency in the overall mortgage rate (and margarita drinking) climate.
The 10 YR yield was pushed below 3.7% this week by strong, yet gentle hands of last week's Jobs report. It wasn't the Ozempic shot in the tummy of the Fed that we were all praying for, but it did keep things moving in the right direction. CPI was released Wednesday, and like the handful of Tums after skipping the gym and having 4 margaritas, it hit just right. It came in right on the screws of expectations, and despite PPI coming in a little hot this morning, we are still wrapped up in the fresh corn tortilla of a sub 3.70 10 YR yield. The market is on edge, though, looking forward to next week's Fed meeting, which should bring with it a 0.25% rate cut. Though that will not directly drop mortgage rates, it should bring with a knee jerk market reaction and some positive overall rate movement. If you are still using your 11:11 wishes on a 50bp cut, I would start applying those to wishes for a 5LB cut on the morning scale, as 25 bps seems to be the number.
Just before the meeting, retail sales data will be releases on Tuesday morning as the last significant data point prior to the decision, and we can only hope for some nice cool news there. Hopefully that hits like a sip of the water at 3 AM you forgot you made yourself before you went to bed.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 9/5/24
Good morning,
Life is full of guarantees. Some of my favorites being 30 minutes or less, 5.5% ABV, and "your satisfaction guaranteed." I like to put these to the test. Can that 17 YR old in his mother's old Toyota really get to my house in this sleet with my peperoni and jalapeño thin crust and wings fried hard in under 30? Well, I hope so, because I am starving and the roads are slick. Well, the Fed has all but guaranteed us a 25 BP rate cut at the upcoming meeting, but that too can be tested.
This week, so far, has supported that claim. JOLTS data had the 10 YR yield yelling "Timber", cause it was going down. Less available jobs and far less turnover in the labor market supports a slowing economy where people are less willing to job hop. The 2 YR and 10 YR yield curve have been inverted longer than my boy Dirt on a keg stand. However, for the first time in 2 years, the yields flipped and dis-inverted to their rightful places, a significant market movement. All this is to say that there is a shot that Jerome Powell and his good time rate bandits very well could see enough evidence prior to the meeting to cut 50bps. I am not saying I am confident in that, but is Jobs and Unemployment come in colder than my new Harry Potter Addidas... we may have a case. Jerome, yeah we are on a first name basis, hates to be wrong. Cutting 50bps could show the economy that the Fed is behind in rate cuts, so it would take a significant change to make them go from 25 to 50, but crazier things have happened (that pizza DID get there in time despite the weather).
Tomorrow at 8:30 brings us the new Jobs and Unemployment reports, and they will have huge impacts in the Fed decision at this month's meeting. It will be worth having a mimosa after the Ravens win and getting up early to watch. Go Vens, and here's to a softening labor market.
As always, have a great day and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 8/29/24
Good morning,
I remember the last time I went deep sea fishing. It was as peaceful as a dump truck driving through nitroglycerine factory. The rolling waves made it harder and harder to keep down the cold fried chicken and hot snickers I had for lunch. Finally, I decided I was going to force down a few Bud heavys, and the beer made it tolerable. That, my friend, is how the current rate climate feels.
Yes, of course, outlooks are brighter and we are on the cusp of moving in the right direction. However, as things stand now, it is a daily (sometimes hourly) nauseating back and forth movement like ring dance at John Carroll. The market is so data focused right now, that missing projections by just a rounding error is causing measurable changes in pricing. Its less a gentle rocking and more a rip the carpet out from under your feet then throw the rug on top of you as a blanket. As you may have guessed, there was a data point this morning that has reignited this frustration. GDP came in 0.2% higher than expected this morning, and that 10 YR yield started acting like my buddy Colman in college, crawlin' towards a 4. These shifts in price, fortunately, have not been life changing. Heck, your client may have not even seen a change in rates offered, but check on your local mortgage banker, because those 0.125% moves start chewing away at our sanity.
Tomorrow brings PCE, which will be another data point that will have certain impact on rates and pricing. If you have any clients that are on the cusp of qualifying or floating their rate, this is one to pay attention to (8:30 tomorrow morning).
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 8/22/24
Good morning,
I'll be honest, I did not hit my summer bod goals this year. That's okay though, because if I did I would have broken my 29 year streak. The temperatures this week have had my quarter zips calling like a siren's song from the upstairs closet, and I am not strong enough to resist that urge. The best part about the fall is that you can toss on a Q-zip, retire from taking your tarp off, and try again to get yourself right next year. Now I know we are not out of the weeds yet, but its not going to stop me from fantasizing.
Speaking of fantasies, let's chat about the absurdity that is the Jobs report. Every month, we all sit around like its pre-K story time and wait for the government to spin their version of the current US Labor Market. They read their report, and the market goes buck wild one way or another. 15K too many jobs? The labor market is red hot and we are nowhere near our goals to justify a rate cut. 15K too few? Recession. Well, just yesterday the revisions to the HOT March labor market report came out. This report rocked the market and caused a spike in rates, but it was about as accurate as the King Tut depiction in my 4th grade history book that looked like Brendan Frasier staring in "The Great Pale Pharaoh." They were not off by a hair, they revised their estimate down by 818,000 jobs. They missed worse than that same 4th grade Jack trying to pass the Presidential Fitness test. Did we see rates shoot down though? No. Unfortunately nobody quite pays attention to the revisions like they do the initial announcements. I like to call that market ADHD.
Outside of that, we also had the Fed minutes released from the last meeting. They were about as shocking as finding beer in a bar. Some Fed members made the case for a July cut, but the vast majority saw fit for a September cut. The Fed does not like to seem wrong, so I would expect a mile 0.25% cut to the Fed rate in September, despite the data. In the meantime, our top economists and J Powell have gathered their wrinkly calculator holders in Jackson Hole to go fishing and "discuss economic policy." All eyes are on the Rate Poppa, as Jerome will be speaking at 10 on Friday. Keep your eyes peeled, as he loves to make his version of a bold statement in Jackson Hole.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 8/16/24
Good morning,
It is truly amazing how quickly America's smartest investors can change their mind. I change my sheets, certainly not as often as even the cheapest motel, but definitely not as frequently as the economists that look into their Magic 8 Balls and bet on the economic future of our country. That said, I give them some slack. They are working off the data available, which is as clear as an inflatable raft painted black sailing through the fog at night.
Not a fortnight ago, per our savvy economists, this country was headed for a recession. Emergency rate cuts were around the corner. Jobs were not available, inflation was down, and unemployment was up. Mortgage rates were trending down and my blood pressure was moving down right alongside the 10 YR yield. It was a nice calm in the squalls. I got comfortable, massive mistake. This week, despite relatively in-line CPI and PPI figures, retail sales came in higher than Snoop at the dressage event in the Olympics. That single data point, flipped the market in 15 minutes. Recession fears were now gone, people were spending money, jobless claims were lower, and we could hang tight until September to review a cut. It was like being woken up from a leftover pizza coma on the couch by the sound of your dog throwing up. Well, the moral of the story is, we are in position economically where there is an amazing amount of uncertainty. Data points are more important that ever in terms of where investors are putting their money, and in turn, the direction of mortgage rates. The beginning of rate cuts should bring upon an inkling of stability, something we all crave.
Next week brings the Fed minutes on Wednesday, so we will all be on pins and needles to hear what they discussed at the last meeting. Rates have ticked up a bit moving into the weekend, but nothing to be concerned about!
As always, have a great weekend, and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 8/8/24
Good morning,
With every reaction comes an opposite and equal reaction. What goes up must come down. Big tree fall hard. You get the point. Much like the hangover after a beautiful buzz with the fellas, the market too corrects and feels some pains after riding a high. And we are poppin' motrin and sipping Gatorade zero (got to watch the cals) this week.
The end of last week brought a sea of red into the stock market, and day traders had to go upstairs, tail between their legs, and tell their significant others that little Ben would now be going to Harford Community College instead of Yale. Go Owls. That brought a flood of investors into the open and comforting arms of the bond market, the safe harbor. In turn, mortgage rates had their most significant improvement in quite some time. We cautiously started screaming to everyone we knew that "we were back baby" and for a moment we were. Late Monday morning, the S&P PMI data came out, and the market realized it may have over corrected. And just like the return to a toxic ex GF (I won't name any names, but you broke my heart), many investors crawled back into the stock market and helped level out some of the market correction we saw. This leveling out and brought the 10 YR yield from 3.78% up to 4% today, and erased some of the mortgage rate drops we saw. That said, they are still significantly stronger than they were early last week.
Market corrections often bring major knee jerks that are followed by a leveling out as more data is brought to the table. The talk of a possible emergency rate cut helped fuel this massive correction. And while that is not off the table, I think it is more likely that the Fed will wait until September for the first cut. However, next week brings us CPI, jobless claims, and retail sales. If this data paints a picture of an economy that is slamming the breaks like my fiance' seeing a cute dog out the window, my opinion could be subject to change. Big week next week, stay tuned!
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 8/1/24
Good morning,
This morning I woke up in a new era. The post Jackson Holliday grand slam era. It'll go down with the moon landing and the release of the breakfast crunchwrap as one of those "where were you when" moments. Me? I was 13 overpriced surfsides deep in the centerfield bar debating when we thought the first rate cut would be when I heard that bat crack. Mr. Holliday ushered in a series of events that left me lightly injured, due to my own accord, but thrilled to have been there. Then today, we saw something we have not seen since what feels like the steroid era... a sub 4% 10 YR Treasury yield.
Rate Poppa Powell put his batteries in yesterday and spoke the bond market into a positive direction. As expected, the Fed held rates, but Powell did comment that a rate cut COULD be on the table in September. He noted that inflation has eased, jobs have moderated, GDP has moderated, but the economy has been expanding at a solid clip. All positive notes for the loyal readers who have made it this far into my update. We are finally seeing most data points consistently point to the same things. People are not spending as much, they are staying put at their job because the labor market is stickier than a movie theater floor, but the economy is still performing. Inflation remains the slow trudge downward, moving at the same pace I walk into the gym (giving myself enough time to contemplate just flipping a U turn and getting a Mucho Gusto marg). There are a lot of things to celebrate today, so make sure you do that. Have a burger, have a beer, and buy the Jackson jersey from DHGate.
Next week is a quiet one, and that is a relief coming off the mound of mortgage news we have seen in the past 2 weeks. Rates ticking down overall heading into the weekend.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 7/25/24
Good morning,
Coming off of a weekend where my blood could have passed for a bottle of Dom Rose' in color, content, and carbonation, hopping back in this saddle was jarring to say the least. A strange balance of Gatorade Zero and Mount Gay has somehow got me leveled out, and I am back to mortgage banking in my sweaty greenhouse of an office. That is what we call bliss. The market also seemed to have trouble getting off the ground this week, but somehow GDP today was the electrolyte filled dark rum the market needed to show signs of life!
Throughout the beginning of the week, the bond market was a tad unstable. Which I understand. There was a lack of data to sink it's teeth into, and when you are hungover from a weekend of gluttony and celebration, you need something to bring you back to life. The market continued it's 3 day hangover, searching for stability like me opening the fridge over and over praying that I missed the leftover 2 AM crunchwrap in the back. GDP loomed over the bond market this morning, and that data came out as pleasant as quick glimpse in the Chase app on a Monday morning to check the damage. Well, the bond market beer bonged that warm beer that was GDP and came out better than before. Color me surprised when we saw investors highlighting the progress we have made year over year, rather than the spike in monthly figures, and the 10 YR note ticked down to 4.21 from 4.27, keeping us from doing some damage to rates before the weekend.
We are not out of the woods yet, with PCE tomorrow, but the market is seemingly as resilient as ever. Overall, investors are still pricing in a modest cut within the next 2 months (with the potential for more prior to year end). There is reason for positivity and celebration, so find one and enjoy the weekend.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 7/18/24
Good morning,
Being the type of guy who will slurp down some leftover noodles out of the fridge before work is challenging while living here, on the surface of the sun. Maryland living sure does make me regret not springing for the air conditioned seats, but we live and we learn. While the atmosphere around us has been challenging, especially as a pre-diabetic asthmatic, the market itself has been relatively cooperative since we last chatted.
We all know last week's CPI data had mortgage bankers day drinking for fun, not for survival. A rare occurrence in a market that often has me feeling as comfortable as waking up inside a zipped up tent in the beating sun. Even more thrilling was the stark lack of data this week. Sure, we had retail sales figures on Tuesdee, but those figures came in cooler than a Coors latte from a white refrigerator in your basement. Looks like many Americans have continued to ease off on the spending, though I am positive Prime Day will cause a blip in this data next month based on the queue of packages Angela has the Amazon man lining up. For the most part this week, investors have been popping tums and digesting the information from last week. We are now looking at an ~80% shot of a rate cut before the end of the year, which would be a major help with the turmoil of an election looming.
Next week will bring about a little more chop in the market with GDP and PCE back to back on Thursday and Friday. Rates have remained steady this week heading into the weekend, so pop the tarp off, kick the dogs up, and enjoy the stability for a bit.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 7/11/24
Good morning,
With these dawg days of summer bringing air thick as Fireball in the freezer, sometimes you can get a little stale. Sometimes you need a little shake up. I wear loafers on the beach, so the beach doesn't really get me out of that funk. Aside from a Tom Collins before noon and a plate of pasta with the thermostat at 65F, what really gets me buckin like an old Bronco... positive market news.
This week was a pretty boring one. Someone hooked Jerome Powell up to a car battery and pushed him in front of Congress, but he basically said (and I am not exaggerating) "rates are where they are and we are going to keep an eye on them for now." He treated his update to congress like me getting a new unexplained sharp pain in my side...no need to panic, it'll fix itself, just have to keep an eye on it. Then today came. CPI day. I decided to try something new, bet on black as they say. Gamble on the positive news and come into the office cheery. Well slap me sideways, if the market did not cooperate. CPI trended lower month over month and annually. HUGE dubya for the bond market, and it provided some much needed rippling in a stagnant rate pond.
All positive news moving into the weekend, and a relatively low data week next week. So, shake things up this weekend. Have a Tommy Collins at 10 AM and pasta at noon indoors with AC so cols you need sweats. Trust me, thats living. If you prefer your update in a video, check out my IG. If you need info on programs for your buyers, or any marketing materials, let me know.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 6/27/24
Good morning,
Fireworks. Hot Dogs. Cooler Beers. 911 Calls. Fourth of July is a beautiful celebration of our great nation, and these are just a few of those treasured traditions. Independence Day is a day to listen to Toby Keith, and fill your tank with that premium, red, white, and blue spirit until it overflows. It has been a tough couple years for this country (and the real estate market as a whole). That does not make it not great, and worthy of a celebration. George Washington did not turn his dining table into dentures for us to splinter and quit. So, let's come together, celebrate the wins and focus on the positives.
Racking up credit card debt to buy cool toys is American as apple pie. That said, it has gotten us into a bit of a raspberry jam as of late. The Fed has worked tirelessly to hamper the American people's ability to do just that over the last two years; raising rates to help discourage spending and cool a burning consumption demand that was seemingly undeterred by historically high inflation rates. After all these months of chipping away, we are seeing further proof that that General Jerome Powell and his rag tag monetary militia have made further progress.
Though inflation has been moving at a trickle, it is drastically closer to our 2% goal. The GDP data today brought a downward rally to the 10 YR yield (still trending under 4.30%). The Q1 GDP data came in at 1.4%, which points to a slow in consumer spending and business activity as a whole. This is data point could prove to be a hot little musket ball for the Fed in the battle to cut rates this year if so.
This week still brings PCE (personal consumption expenditures) data, which will add more color to the American spending story. Let's keep rooting to see a slowdown, and focus on the positive shift in the data. Slowly, but surely, we are making progress in lifting some of the taxes imposed upon us by this constrictive market.
As always, have a great weekend, have a great 4th, and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 6/20/24
Good morning,
This heat dome has taken its toll on my family. Each morning, as I prepare the liquid IV for for myself and the best fed bulldog on the East coast, I practice gratitude. Like a fine tuned athlete heading to game 7, I crank the AC to 68 and slap the poster of Willis Carrier (the father of air conditioning) on the way out the door. I gasp for air as I enter the car that I demanded black interior on, and head to work. While Maryland is a steaming hot death trap currently, we can all drink in the cool refreshment that has been the bond market this week.
A week without a laundry list of data points is as comforting as rubbing your legs together like a cricket when you get into a freshly made bed. We really had one major item to keep an eye on this week, and that was retail sales. Against all odds team, we did it! We listened to that inner financial advisor we have all ignored for so long, and put down the AMEX just as we were about to set the 6th glass of wine down to click "complete order" on the framed picture of the dogs dressed as wizards. Retail sales came in light, and we followed that up with the first A+ rated bond auction I have seen since my shirt size didn't start with an X. The 10 YR yield has remained below 4.30% and rates have held with slight improvements throughout the week.
Next week will not be such a walk in the park, with some heavy hitting inflation data, GDP and PCE all in one week. That said, there is reason for optimism given the last inflation readings and retails sales coming in light. Keep an eye on things next week, as these data points could certainly move the market at a good clip in either direction.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 6/13/24
Good morning,
This week has been one of ups and downs for my household. Highs and lows are a part of life though I suppose. As I fight through the challenges of trying to eat mortadella secretly at 2 AM without waking the dogs, and keeping calm as I battle my mystery dermatitis (if you are a doctor please reach out), I think it is important to focus on the highs. One high that that has hit me like a vacation beer is the market performance.
By no means are we over here selling refinances like Miller High Life and American Eagle polos to a 2008 frat house, but we certainly have had some significant positive movement this week. Number one on this list was the CPI report. Before the report, I was walking around the office like a mosquito in a morgue, just drained and starving for some dopamine. Well, I asked and I received. Like a cold Gatorade after a night of drinking orange crushes like a pirate fighting scurvy, the CPI came with much needed refreshment. Year over year and month over month, we made a slight move down. Slightly down is as good as a nosedive in the current picture. Later that day, someone pushed Jerome Powell out on stage and made him talk. Shockingly, nothing cataclysmic. Inflation still present, but moving down slowly. Still looking at one rate cut this year. The cherry on top was a tick up in initial job claims (I know I am a sick man to root for this).
Overall, we had a strong week for data, which was a long time coming. Rates saw an improvement in price, and gave us all a little shot of something strong...hope.
As always have a great weekend and a great Father's Day! Let me know if you need anything at all.
Market Update - 6/6/24
Good morning,
Weeks like this are good for the soul. When there's green on the screen, and the market is trending the right direction consistently, now that is a high Cypress Hill could only dream of. Taking in a monster hit of good news every day makes meals taste better, sleep more refreshing, and small incidents (like ruining your gray slacks driving home - if you know, you know) just a blip on the radar. If things stay this way a little while longer, who knows I may just start going to the gym and really right this ship.
This week has Ctrl + Alt + Deleted the bad market news from last week and then some. We were looking down the barrel of a daunting data death trap, but thus far... we have seen nothing but positive news *frantically knocking on wood*. JOLTS came in way light, showing that people are far less keen to dip their toes into the rancid harbor water that is the jobs market. Less job openings, and more people staying put shows the Fed that maybe the jobs market is not so hot any longer. ADP followed suit showing private payrolls down lower than a wiener dog army crawl race. Today is light on news, so take some time to soak in the positive market news, as we are not fully out of the weeds.
Though JOLTS and ADP would lend one to believe that Jobs and Unemployment would be a cake walk on Friday, we have seen this song and dance many times before. The private sector ADP figures do not always correlate to the government figures (for reasons well beyond our control - well until they inevitably revise them a month later that is). That said, there is reason to be positive moving into Friday morning with just how significantly lower the actual figures came in compared to estimates. All data is released 8:30 Friday morning so keep your eyes peeled, as positive movement here would be huge positive move into the weekend!
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 5/30/24
Good morning,
The week after a holiday is always a tough one. It's short, sure, but somehow it drags out like a meeting that could have been an email. I always take the stairs in my office after a weekend, that way none of the poolside southsides and plate of french fries count because of exercise. Tuesday however, my platypus feet felt full of lead and much like the market I was hungover and full of anxiety.
My anxiety, I beat it with a couple shame meals and comfort movies, the old fashioned way. The market, however, reacted like a rookie drinker on a bachelor party, just lashing out at people who did not deserve it. we fired out of the gate with back to back abysmal bond sales Tuesday and Wednesday. The Treasury notes were looking about as attractive to investors as me doing sit ups in a speedo. The 10 Yr spiked, and rates felt that. Fortunately, by this morning, the market shook its angst and began to right some of the wrongs. GDP fell lower than anticipated with the inflation components cooling as well. This was like a bacon, egg and cheese for the soul.
Looking forward, PCE is released tomorrow morning, and as long as the American people have not been TOO glutenous (I promise I am doing my part), this could drive more positive rate movement into the weekend. It is definitely a market mover though, so if a buyer is on the cusp of qualifying it certainly worth paying attention to (as a spike up could certainly throw us right back into a tailspin). Next week is "put on your helmet and pray" week with Jobs, JOLTS, ADP and unemployment. So, go get some sunshine and relax while you can!
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 5/23/24
Good morning,
MD-Dubya is always a fun weekend. You and your in-laws, who quietly harbor a growing disgust for your loud mouth and love for shotgunning beers, pack into a car and prepare to spend a long weekend in cramped AirBnb together. It is as American as apple pie and sticky inflation. Pools open and grown men who call 10 minutes in the sauna a workout dive for free beers at their over priced club. At that is not an insult, that is just me doing some self reflection. That being said, we all know we could use the extra day of trying to relax but frantically checking emails and pulling out the laptop in inappropriate locations, or as we in real estate call it - a weekend.
We had a relatively quiet week this week. The data driven market did not have much to digest and the 10 YR, along with rates, remained relatively steady. However, if you thought we were going to roll into a 3 day weekend without a little unrest, you are about as sharp as a silicone spatula. This morning we were treated to S&P PMI data, which came in hotter than loafers on the beach. The figure ticked up quite a bit overall last month, hinting at some further resilience in the US economy (as judged by some private sector big wigs). Will this data point affect us long term? Probably not, as these guys are as reliable as the team who declared the Harbor "swimmable." That being said, it will certainly cause an uptick in rate cost and the 10 YR heading into the weekend.
Next week brings GDP data for Q1 as well as PCE data (Thursday and Friday respectively) so expect quite a bit of movement on those days. GDP and PCE is quite a 2 headed monster to face, which seems appropriate given that we are about to see people swimming in Baltimore Harbor.
As always, have a great weekend, and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 5/16/24
Good morning,
Looking out the window at the beautiful, toxic waters of the Baltimore Harbor this morning, with the sun beaming down for the first time in weeks; I am reminded that one small moment can really turn things around. It's like someone cancelling a meeting you were dreading for days. It's finding out the dry wedding with folk music you were forced to attend decided to buy a few cases of Budweiser (and they say complaining never pays off). It's seeing a CPI report with lower than expected numbers after seeing all your prayers of lower rates this year get turned to dust faster than Lil Wayne's dutchie.
CPI week brings upon waves of gut wrenching anxiety for mortgage bankers like myself. Whether you are floating and praying for price or just begging for some good news to advertise, lately it seems like it just never goes your way. Much like Christmas as an adult, you get so excited every time it comes around, thinking about the great memories of unwrapping that N64, but then it's just socks and day drinking. Which, don't get me wrong, is great at it's core, but it's just not the same. This time though, this one beautiful moment, was different. I purposefully avoided looking at the computer at 8:30. I wanted to hear the reaction of the office. I prepared for impact, expecting the standard dejected office gasp, but imagine my surprise like the Grinch on Christmas hearing the Who's rejoice, when I heard a collective "LFG" like I was at a 2013 frat party. CPI came in lower by 0.1% month over month and .2% lower on the core year over year. Doesn't sound like much, but pair that with a MONSTER dip in retail sales and we have some real proof that spending is slowing and inflation is trending the right direction.
Now, I won't jump and say this puts rate cuts back on the table right away, but more of this trend and we could absolutely be talking about them again. Great news for rates moving into the weekend!
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 5/9/24
Good morning,
Sometimes, when the weeks are devoid of data points I find myself missing them a little. Boring is a good thing though. I am a man who likes a routine. Lunch is 11 AM for me and the other 65 year olds, and I don't miss lunch. I like to use the elliptical because of the low impact on my knees, and if I can't get in the sauna I will refuse to go to the gym, period. I try to maintain three points of contact to avoid surprises and I always check my six. This week has been boring in terms of mortgage data, but again boring is a good thing and I am trying to remind myself that a needle unmoved these days is as good as rates dipping relatively speaking.
Last week was about as boring as a 70s acid trip, as we discussed on Friday (sorry again for the delay), so I think we should relish in this slower week and take a moment to focus on exactly where we are. For one, compared to this time last year, we have made a ton of progress. Inflation has moved 90% of the way to the 2% goal, but the last 10% down will be about as easy and army crawling with your shirt off down Boston St. Several Fed members spoke out this week and confirmed their opinions that the current rate will be sufficient, with time, to reach the 2% goal and the next rate move will be down. Next month, we will see the quantitative tapering of the Fed balance sheet reduced in a major way, and that should give Treasury yields a nudge down (and rates in turn- God willing). The market will remain in this data-driven holding pattern until we have a more clear guidance from the Fed and that will not happen without more consistent market data proving that we are on the right path. That being said, recent Jobs and unemployment data DO hint that progress is being made. Now we just need more consistency...which has been about as common as a shoe with laces in my closet (FYI I gave up shoes that tie).
Looking forward, next week will bring us a major major CPI report. The Fed will be paying special attention to this inflation data and retail spending data after last meeting, and if this comes in line we could see a BIG market rally as the market is forward looking. I am not going to go into what happens if it doesn't go our way because we are being positive this week.
Happy Mother's Day to all of the awesome moms out there and as always have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 5/3/24
Good morning,
First of all, I owe you an apology. Yesterday's conference deep on the Eastern Shore taught me a few things. First and foremost, I am probably done with camping forever. My allergies, crippling technology addiction, and lower back pain could never allow for that. Just the 8 hour shift of being in a barn, drinking Diet Coke without AC and limited cell service was enough to remind me of that. Everyone said "enjoy it, you are always ON." Well, how am I supposed to enjoy myself when I can't check the 10 YR yield, show the people sitting next to me at the conference pictures of people online that the speakers sort of look like, and refresh my email every 2 minutes? Well, my friends, patience is virtue, because not only did we make it through this data gauntlet, but we came out looking like Christie Brinkley in Nation Lampoon's Vacation.
Take off your helmet, and smell the air? You know what that smell is? Lower job creation and higher unemployment. Sweet like spring dew (again we are sick puppies, have to root for it). This morning the jobs report came in absolutely Coors Light blue mountain cold. Pair that with the amuse-bouche that was the tick up in unemployment rate to 3.9%, and all of the sudden the market came charging back. This comes after a JOLTS report confirming less job openings AND DJ J Powell spinning a pretty positive message.
The Fed held rates, as expected, but that little rate leprechaun brought us all a proverbial pot of gold with his announcement that the Fed would reduce their massive selloff of their balance sheet starting 6/1. This means the Fed will stop offloading so much of their massive Treasury portfolio and flooding the market with them (the beginning of the end of Quantitative Tapering). Ending QT is a massive step in getting rates under control by bringing the 10 YR yield under control. Less supply, more demand, lower yields and in turn lower rates.
Great news headed into the weekend and lot of things to be positive about. Pop on your speedo, sit by your inflatable pool, crack open a cold pop and soak up the beauty that is positive market news.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 4/25/24
Good morning,
I grew up the youngest, and huskiest of 3 brothers, so believe me I am familiar with being pranked. One morning I wake up, and the house is quiet. However, I go to do the ol' rollover and pushup out of bed when I notice a little Hershey's kiss at my door. I obviously pounce like a lion on an antelope, but there's more. I continue to follow the chocolate snail trail until I unknowingly end up in the basement. Boom, before you know it Chris and Mike have me handcuffed to the basketball pole outside and I am left to wait for my Mother to get home, and that my friends is how this current market feels. One small glimpse of sweet relief, and boom a GDP report comes out and handcuffs us to the proverbial basketball pole.
The S&P PMI data was released Tuesday, and for the first time in months we saw a lower score than expected (by a good margin mind you). The number hinted at a weakening over overall economic health. Something that felt as good as an orthopedic insert into my slip on sneakers. Finally, a sweet little treat for us. Well, as I know all too well, rarely does that last long. Right around the corner was the older brother to end the fun... Q1 GDP. The funny thing is that the overall GDP number came in WAY low compared to our last reading. Hinting at another slowdown in our domestic production and economic health. The kicker was that the inflation component of this came in way way hot. The cost of goods and services still trending up. The bond market rejected quicker than the first 3 girls I asked to prom. So, inflation is essentially sticking around while the overall economy is starting to show signs of weakening. I would expect to start hearing the buzzword "stagflation" very very soon, and the Fed is not going to like that.
So, here we are, handcuffed to the basketball pole. We have a daunting list of market movers ahead with PCE tomorrow, ADP, JOLTS, a Fed Meeting, unemployment and jobs ALL NEXT WEEK. So, lets hope that these data points can bring us a move back to a 10 YR yield under 4.50, because sitting above 4.70% will do us no favors.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 4/18/24
Good morning,
I am part of the problem. I get it. I too am the American people, and boy can the American people still spend cash. I, myself, have flown, paid for an upgrade to avoid a middle seat, and impulse bought multiple quarter zips over the past week. Was any of it necessary? That's up to me to decide. However, what is a fact, is that spending will contribute to our retail and consumer spending reports. In the words of the great T. Swizzle.. I'm the problem it's me.
I don't mean to pick on our spending here people, but it is not doing us any favors in terms of interest rates. This week really has not been all that bad, but Monday was a Hall of Fame Monday. Imagine you just flew in from a bachelor party where you lost the shirt off your back at the race track (not literally, I don't party like that anymore), you flip open your laptop expecting the market to be flatter than my arch-less feet on concrete, but instead are greeted by a retail spending report so hot you would think every American was whipping out the Amex like Elton John at a costume store. On top of the hot retail sales report this month, the numbers from last month's retail sales were also adjusted. Can you guess in which direction? That is right, straight up. Turns out, this spending has been a continued pattern, and the bond market did not react well. The 10 YR yield shot over 4.65%. We gained some ground on a good bond auction yesterday and got closer to where we were at the start of the week, but remain over 4.60%.
Next week brings Q1 GDP as well as PCE (Thursday and Friday respectively), which are both market moving data points. We could all use a few shots of good news, so stay tuned and say your prayers!
As always, have a great weekend, and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 4/11/24
Good morning,
There's something comforting about the lawlessness of an airport after security. Sure I got the rubber glove pat down this morning (sorry Angela, very true story but TSA Steve wasn't pleased about it either), but once that was over I was seated at a bar with a 22oz beer with Susan asking me if I wanted to make the screwdriver a double... well yeah. Burger and wings or a breakfast burrito at 9:45? Why not both? Here you can make that possible. It really is beautiful. It is exceptionally comforting, and after yesterday we could all use some comfort.
If you happened to catch my reel (I'm a content creator now) yesterday, then you already know. We expected CPI to be trending up a bit this month on the year over year numbers, but it turned out to be higher than 15 year old me after hitting the apple in the garage trying to scoop my soup with a fork. We ticked up .10% over expected on both YOY and month over month, and the markets were about as pleased as my mother when she smelled the garage. The bond market stuck a needle it it's proverbial life preserver and sank like a box of rocks, taking mortgage rates with it. The Fed minutes was about as helpful. The Fed essentially said, uhhhh yeah it looks like inflation is not really moving too much and we are uncertain of what else to do but wait. The odds of a June rate cut became about as certain as me winning money at the race track this weekend, slim to none. But there is always hope.
Right now, we are seeing a tough trend in the data, and it seems like it is going to be quite a bit more time than expected before the tide really turns. Jobs and manufacturing data continue to reflect a resilient economy, and American people continue to spend despite higher prices and borrowing costs. Inflation has come down, but it is seemingly stalling like an 85 F-150 on a hill. Next week does not bring a ton of heavy hitting data, so the market will be more appetite and performance driven than data driven. Here is hoping for some relief, we could all use it!
As always, have a great weekend, and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 4/4/24
Good morning,
I am in the minority that was not ready to give up winter. I like it. I can drape a Q-zip sweater over all the damage I did to my body that year and still look like I have not totally committed to the carb only diet. I don't sweat just walking out the door. But most importantly, I can open up my eyes and go about my day without wheezing like Mikey in the Goonies and sneezing so often that I can no longer get a "bless you." Unfortunately for me, those days are dwindling. Coffee will soon be iced and ill have tissues jammed up my nose praying for the Zyrtec to take over. On the other hand, it usually brings about some fun in the housing market.
I prepped you last week for a gauntlet this week and it has been just that. The Monday after Easter was as pleasant as walking into 1920s slaughterhouse in August. Just an absolute butchering. The 10 YR got spiked like a prom punch to near 4.4% off of red hot manufacturing data. I watched as the clinically chubby keyboard warriors around the office started slinging expletives around like monkeys at the zoo in response to their floating pipeline. The zoo keepers got us back in line the following day as we were saved by the positive JOLTS report. It was not anything drastic, but the reduced available jobs kept the market from free falling. After that, we have see sawed. Wednesday, computers got thrown against office doors again as ADP estimates on payroll were way up. Today, we picked up the keyboards and stuck the keys back on as jobless claims came in high and calmed the market (221K claims versus 213K expected).
Does the data seem confusing? That is because it is. The economy, overall, is still remaining strong like bull despite efforts from the Fed, but we are still seeing certain sectors hack off employees like a medieval doctor. The predictability of these reports has become more like gambling on Korean E-sports at 3AM, but their importance remains prominent. We are not out of the woods yet, with the official Jobs and unemployment reports dropping at 8:30 tomorrow. Say your prayers for cuts in jobs and spikes in unemployment, as that is the quickest way out of the woods for us!
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 3/28/24
Good Morning,
Day Drinking. Cracker Jacks. Remote "Work." What do these three items have in common? They are the major themes of this beautiful slop fest called O'Pening Day here in Bawldamore. It's been a trying year for all of us, and for a few hours today we can all put our rally caps on, open up a Natty Boh pounder, slurp down a Stuggy's hotdog and hope to see Gunnar mash some taters out of the Yard so they can fire up the Dong Bong. Before we all get down to business, let's chat about the market.
After last week's Fed meeting, we were all looking forward to sitting in the bullpen this week. Light news week, which makes for general stability. Something we have not had the pleasure of soaking in since Pete Rose was hitting parlays. The general trend of stability rang pretty true until this morning. It's not an Irish coffee at 8 AM crisis, but we did see a little spike in the 10 YR this morning due to the GDP readings and unemployment figures. GDP continued it's upward shuffle, getting steady higher like my cousin Kev in high school (we all got one). Jobless claims came in a little light, but not enough to send us into a spiral. Overall I expect pricing to deteriorate slightly, but not significant enough to get a call from your lender buddies (AKA me).
Let's keep this short and sweet, we all have better things to do today than read. Next week, pop a Zoloft and grab a parachute, because were going to be on a turbulent flight every day. Enjoy the relative stability of this week. Enjoy today, and GOH O"s.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all - also if you are downtown, come see me for a brewski.
Market Update - 3/21/24
Good morning,
It’s so important for real estate professionals to stop and smell the roses. The news cycle has been about as relaxing as sitting next to someone on speakerphone at the bar, so it’s important to celebrate the little wins. Waking up today after a delightful bourbon fueled snooze, I just knew it was going to be one of those rare days where vibes are just good. March Madness starts at noon (HMU if you want to put together a parlay), the sun is shining bright, my belt went to the second hole without a fight, and guess what? The market is actually performing relatively well compared to the last few weeks of psychological abuse.
Last week felt like every day was a buzzer beater loss. It was hard to lace up the Jordan's every morning and walk back into the office, but that's just what we do. Moving into this week, we were staring up at 10 YR over 4.3% and Fed meeting anxiety clouding around us like like Winston Red smoke in your grandfather's Taurus wagon. The market spent Monday and Tuesday essentially on pins and needles like a 2 point lead when you're laying 2.5. Wednesday at 2PM, we all filed out of our offices like hogs to the slaughter and surrounded the conference room TV like the moon landing was being broadcast. We all knew there would be no movement on rates, but we wanted to hear what that old bag of bones Jerome had to say.
To my utter shock, despite the absolute septic tank of data we have received lately in regards to inflation, jobs and unemployment - the Fed is still projecting at least 3 cuts this year on their dot plot. The market tension relaxed like that first, crisp sip of beer during the 12:15 tipoff. Now, there were more Fed members on the 2 or less train than prior, but the majority still feel 3 would be in line. Does that tell us anything? Maybe. Maybe it tells us that the Fed may ease up on their 2% goal and move the benchmark to 2.5%. Maybe it tells us that they think inflation will ease up a little quicker later in the year. Maybe they just think high rates for too long could put America in a jam.
All we know for sure, is that the Fed still want to bring rates lower this year. This could change, yes, but today is a time to stop and smell the roses... or wings, beers and bets. The market gave us some SLIGHT rate relief and some decent news, so bathe in it.
If you want to celebrate, meet me at the Worthington tomorrow at noon for food, drinks and good company. Otherwise, as always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 3/14/24
Good morning,
Well, at least it’s sunny. Shoutout to El Nino for bringing this shot of dopamine when we needed it most. My advice, go take a walk to anywhere that sells both pizza and beer (it’s Pi day after all), and bask in the sun like a pizza drunk turtle. If you can’t pick up on these hints, the data since we last spoke was about as encouraging as my high school football coach when I showed up with an inhaler in my hand. I respond well to tough love, fortunately.
If this market were a theme park ride, it would be a roller coaster secured together, loosely, by rusty old bolts from your grandfather’s spare part drawer. The seatbelts would be repurposed from 2003 Camrys, and the staff would be a group of teenagers vaping in your face. Just a constant anxiety attack. We were spared from disaster on Friday when the unemployment data showed an increase, which offset the Jobs report – which was about as hot as popping a microwaved Totino’s pizza roll in your mouth. The two reports essentially wiped each other out and we were sent to the weekend feeling as if we avoided disaster.
This brings me to the lemon juice on an open wound that has been this week. CPI data was released Tuesday, and both core CPI and CPI showed an increase both monthly and year over year. After watching the 10 YR climb above 4.10% in reaction, LO’s across the country put on their protective beer drinking helmet and prepared for today’s impact. PPI dropped like a new Limp Bizkit album nobody asked for and kept the bad news “Rollin Rollin Rollin.” The report reinforced the notion that inflation is continuing to linger like a high school “friend” you ran into at Claddagh Pub. The 10 YR yield is currently sitting at 4.29% and the bond market is performing just as bad.
Overall, we lost some ground on rates this week. Simple as that. The inflation data comes at about the worst time possible, as Fed Chair Powell is getting his merry band of mathletes together next week to discuss their decision on the Fed Funds rate and to discuss when they see rate cuts beginning. This data is making it feel like rate cuts will continue to be pushed back. The Fed will likely want to reinforce that they will not be cutting rates until they see more progress on the war on inflation, which has been about as successful as my war on my waistline. So, at least it’s sunny. Fed will be meeting Tuesday and Wednesday with the press conference at 2PM Wednesday.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 3/7/24
Good morning,
Somedays this job is like a cooler beer on a Summer day, just a delight. Borrowers send their docs timely, the market doesn't cause a searing red wine hangover headache, and we go home at a decent hour. Other days you pick up that can of beer to drink it and you take a big gulp of your brother's Copenhagen spit. Lately, the volatility has made it feel like the latter more times than not. Every day when I open my eyes, and muster the courage to roll out of bed, I picture that cold beer type of day. Does is help? Eh. But, it certainly doesn't hurt, so I encourage you all to do the same.
Since we last chatted, the market actually hasn't completely evaporated, and my pessimism has not brought me to the brink of insanity. Which, as a benchmark, is pretty good news. That being said, if we look over the fence at tomorrow's data points, you could certainly convince yourself to slam the laptop, pop open a Bota box, and drink right from the nozzle. We will cross that bridge shortly though. The 10 YR caught a little steam this week and wobbled its way back down to 4.1%, giving rates some much needed downward relief. The ADP report came in lighter than an LED manufacturing plant, beautiful news. JOLTS was right on the screws, kudos to our economists there. Even a blind squirrel, you get the point. Godfather J Powell has spent the last two days answering mind numbing questions from Congress, and successfully avoided saying anything other than "we're not really sure, we are going to leave rates where they are for now." Believe it or not, that is actually great news, considering he usually finds a way to tank the bond market when he is within 6 feet from a microphone. All relatively positive news this week.
That brings us to tomorrow. At 8:30 AM you will have the decision to day drink or not made for you by the Jobs and unemployment reports. We have not had much luck over the past 2 months with these data points, and they are MAJOR market influencers. The economy remains hotter than a pleather car seat in a Target parking lot, despite upward rate pressure. Despite ADPs numbers, Jobs have consistently been up and unemployment ticking down. Again, we need to (unfortunately) root for some pain here. So, wake up picturing that cold beer day and maybe (just maybe) we will get a pleasant surprise tomorrow.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 2/29/24
Good morning,
I have long been in the camp of boring is pretty darn good. Vanilla ice cream? Fantastic. Buttered noodles? One of the backbones of our youth. Light beer? The cornerstone of my home town. Surprises are fun, but sometimes my stomach just cannot take the roller coaster of instability. Am I coming home to a sewage backup or or hot piece of meat? That's the thing about surprises, you just don't know.
Well, for weeks now, the market has been full of surprises. How much fun has that been? About as much fun as a hip replacement under the age of 40. My humpty dumpty cousin John can tell you all about that (the dangers of running are real). After the last month, I am just sick of surprises in this market, and this week brought us all a wonderful gift. A week as boring as watching paint dry sober, with NPR on in the background. It could have been a rocky week with GDP and PCE, but neither really moved the needle. GDP came in just a frog's hair lower than anticipated, but the inflation pieces of GDP were slightly higher (essentially a net neutral movement). Today, PCE dropped and brought another exciting gift...nothing. The data came in right on the screws and gave a slight positive movement, but not enough to warrant a celebratory happy hour (although, that is up for debate). The market has remained more stable and consistent than the Harborplace Hooters this week. Talk about staying power. Now, would it have been sweet to see the 10 YR dip like a buffalo shrimp into some Hooters signature sauce? Sure. But, I will take boring over the heart palpations we have experienced over the course of the last few weeks.
Next week promises to get back to the gut wrenching volatility of late with ADP, JOLTS, Jobs and unemployment. It's like the red carpet of reasons to drink. So, settle in to the couch, embrace the boring and prepare for some surprises next week. Good or bad.
As always, have a great weekend, and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 2/22/24
Good morning,
As Andy Bernard, the Nard Dog, once said "I wish there was a way to know you're in the good old days before you've actually left them." It would be wonderful thing. Those days when I was drinking Four Loko tall boys in cutoff overalls, well I would have cherished them more. I would have savored every bite of the Taco Bell I ate for breakfast and the sounds of my New Balances sticking to the kitchen floor of the fraternity house. When the lady at China House asked if I wanted the $1 shrimp or the $2 shrimp added to my Hunan chicken, I would have sprung for the $2 shrimp. You get it. Well, a few weeks ago, we were trending in the right direction. Things seemed sunny and 65 even in the snow and sleet. I thought, "we did it Hinder, we made it to the other side." Well, as with all good times and trays of Hunan chicken, they had to come to an end.
The volatility continues to dominate the market, just like I did in the backyard football game against Angela's nephews (7 TDS, 5 sacks, 300 all purpose yards). The Fed minutes allowed a bunch of nerds to deep dive into the last meeting and search for clues. All they found was a big ol bag of disappointment. The Fed did reiterate that they believed there was no room to tighten further and raise rates, but the many of the committee do see fit to remain high until they see data to convince them the job is done.
What data did they point to? Here is the crazy part... hold on to your seat... they literally do not know LOL. For now, the assumption is that CPI remains the most important measure of inflation. And much like me after a weekend of beer bonging pasta and red wine, that needs to deflate. The issue is that the jobs data will simply not cooperate. The economy seems to simply be too strong to react in the normal manner. Meaning, this battle will take longer than anticipated, period.
While there was reaction to the Fed minutes, what really set us back was the bond auction this week. There was simply no demand for the Treasury bonds this week. With a lack of demand, and the market accepting the fact that rates are not coming down in the very near future, we definitely lost some footing this week and the 10 YR slipped above 4.3%. Nothing devastating for your clients or those in the market, but just further proof that this battle will remain harder than drunkenly ascending a spiral stair case.
As always, have a great weekend and please let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 2/15/24
Good morning,
What a week it has been. A week filled with love. Though, despite that fat flying baby's best efforts, love has it's ups and downs. It is not always hand holding and eating sandwiches. Sometimes, its getting caught blaming farts on the dogs and keeping a laundry room wine stash...just in case. Well much like love, the market also has it's ups and downs and this week we have seen the good, bad, and ugly.
We knew things could get squirrely this week with CPI starting our Tuesday morning, but it turned out as pleasant as biting into one of those gamble chocolates filled with toothpaste. January's CPI actually rose .1% from December and the year over year moved about as much as me on Sunday's, rolling off the couch to check the refrigerator again. The market reacted as calmly as a drunk Philadelphia sports fan, and the 10 YR shot up close to 4.3%. Projected rate cuts were set back to later in Q2, much to everyone's dismay, after that news on inflation being stickier than a move theatre floor. The roller coaster continues it's nauseating loop today with some good news. Retail sales, as expected, dropped a significant chunk from December. Now did the market come roaring back? No. But we did chip away at some of the losses from earlier this week. Overall, it seems that the market continues to try to be more optimistic than the data, and is left severely disappointed with each major data point that is released. As the market resets its view to rate cuts coming later (possibly with fewer than anticipated), I would expect the data driven volatility to continue, so bring your barf bag with you on this trip.
Next week brings the Fed Meeting minutes, which is always an opportunity for people to try and read between the lines and look for hints into what the Fed sees happening. I would expect a lot of volatility leading up to that on Wednesday afternoon.
As always, have a great weekend, and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 2/8/24
Good morning,
What a busy morning to be a mortgage banker. I stumbled out of the front door in a haze this morning, still chewing the leftover pizza crust that made up my well balanced breakfast. Got to work and sat in my boss's chair this morning, searching for money and Gucci gift cards in his desk while he is on paternity leave (congrats and thank you for the 20 spot Ayaz). The calm week we thought we would have in the market quickly turned into acid reflux inducing rodeo, and this morning was no different. So, let me kick my shoes up on his desk with a view, and tell you about what's been happening.
It all started last Friday. A day that, in theory, should have been one for chest bumps with the boys. *Morgan Freeman voice* "It was indeed not a day for chest bumps with the boys." Despite ADP coming in low and jobless claims WAY high, somehow the Jobs report and unemployment data provided stronger data in the exact opposite direction. Try and digest what I just said. ADP employment report was down... but Jobs came in Martha Stewart Sports Illustrated hot. Jobless claims were Snoop Dog high, and unemployment came in low. I'm not going to put on my tin foil hat today, but something stinks, and its not Ayaz's pile of socks under his desk. Well, at least there was not much data coming up in the next week. Should have been a calm week right? Wrong. Beloved Georgetown grad, Jerome Powell signed up for 60 minutes and decided to shoot the proverbial propane tank that is the bond market on Sunday night. He was so hawkish that I am truly surprised he didn't grow wings and land on someone's gloved hand. Since then, from Monday until now, the market has been highly volatile, with most of the swings in the wrong direction. The 10 YR yield is back above 4.10% (for reference we had gone under 4%), and rates climbed back up along with the yield.
Next week brings a gauntlet of CPI, retail sales, and PPI. It would seem retail sales would almost certainly come down from December, but we never know how CPI is going to shake out. Next week has the opportunity to send us back in the right direction, or continue to undo a lot of the progress from this year. Be on guard and look out for Tuesday's CPI data at 8:30.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 2/1/24
Good morning,
There are plenty of days as a mortgage banker where you walk over to get a coffee and the beer fridge starts winking at you. At that moment, you have to make a decision. A decision that often market driven. Did we have to put a kegerator in the office? No. But, today, I am glad we did. Today, beer wins, and it has nothing to do with the searing sauvignon blanc headache I'm sporting. We finally have reason to celebrate again and I simply refuse to squander it.
This was a risky week, and I know about risk. I ate buffalo wings for 6 days in a row last year because I'm pretty sure they're Keto and I was trying to drop a cup size. I'll say this, the juice was not worth the squeeze. This week however, the results have been nothing short of a fresh roll of Charmin to clean up all the crap we've been dealing with lately. Honestly, after the Raisins loss, I was pretty sure I could not sink any lower. Well, Tuesday morning brought the JOLTS report, which was essentially was like turning on the lights at the bar... startling. It was scalding hot (how? I don't know), and I just assumed we would continue to get pummeled all week long. I came to work Wednesday, starved of dopamine, and instead of eating ice cream for breakfast again, I followed my imaginary therapist's advice and remained positive. The answer to my prayers came in the form of the ADP report. Employment figures dropped lower than my 8th grade dance date, Brooke Sanchez, when we heard "apple bottom jeans" in the cafe-gyma-torium.
The market came roaring back to life like it had a Saturday morning shower beer. The Fed held rates steady as expected, and even Jerome Powell couldn't kill the buzz. Today, jobless claims came in way up and pushed the 10 YR down to 3.84%. The past few days have not just been good, they have undone almost all of the past few weeks of damage. The outlook is bright looking at tomorrow. Unemployment and the Jobs report drop at 8:30 tomorrow morning, and if the trend continues we could see rates drop to a point that would put refinances on the table for many former buyers, and unlock a lot of extra purchasing potential.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 1/25/24
Good Morning,
Caw caw, its AFC chip week here in Baltimore, and I feel like I have been down there at the Bank training with Roquan and the boys. I'll tell you what, I strapped on my purple camo cargo shorts this week, got an advance on my next check, and fueled up over at Jimmy's seafood for a battle in the bond market this week. As I marched down Ponca St, passed the Nightshift (if you know you know), I knew it was going to be a tough stretch. Bond auctions, GDP, and S&P PMI reports loomed over me like a squeegee boy on my windshield. It was no time for quitters though.
After the shine began to come off this market a week ago, we were all praying for some relief this week. A savior, a Joe Flacco type if you will. Well, we took a Baltimore beating with the bond market selling off in a major way Monday and Tuesday. The 10 Yr started creeping upward, and all of the sudden 420 was not such a funny number. The S&P PMI figures then lit a match and tossed it in the trash can that is the current bond market pricing, essentially reinforcing how strong the economy has been performing (despite major tightening). Then today, in the dim light of the trash can fire, we caught a glimpse of something... something promising. Jobless claims. The initial claims came in over estimated, and like a 3 second pull of Rumple in the B/C lot, we were reinvigorated. GDP came in shortly after, and while it was a little over estimated, the inflation components were nice and tame. For the first time in what feels like 2 weeks, we are seeing some positive market performance chewing up some of the ground that was lost. I feel like I'm standing at Fort McHenry in the Battle of B-more, giving the red coats double middle fingers.
We're rolling into the weekend with some momentum, so keep riding the high. CPI and Jobs reports are right around the corner. Stay positive, eat your body weight in chicken wings, and go Vens!
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all.
Market Update - 1/18/24
Good morning,
Some things are as consistent and predictable as the sunset. For example, I am always going to stub my toe stepping over the dog gate in my kitchen. I am always going to curse loudly, even though I put it there. I am always going to order the cheesesteak eggrolls as an app, and I will always be sweaty by game time when the entrée comes out. It's just like the tides. Well, rates being as volatile as a sleepy toddler is continuing to be just that predictable.
The amount of snowfall this week, however, was a surprise. And imagine my surprise after bartering with the neighborhood kids to clean off my car, flipping open my laptop and seeing the market in absolute shambles. Post holiday, the bond market sold off in a major way. Think Circuit City going out of business type sell off. Well, the 10 YR took the escalator up into the 4s and has yet to come back down. Retail sales figures were released yesterday, and oh my heavens, can you believe it? Retails sales were UP in December? You don't say... what do we think boosted retail sales figures in the month of December? Well, the bond market doesn't have a guess, so another major sell off occurred, stifling the rate and 10 YR yield momentum we have been riding. A few more bad reports sprinkled on top of this horrid salad dropped today, but fortunately we have remained relatively stable, which feels like straight up at this point. OH, almost forget, Fed members decided they were bored and grabbed a mega phone so they could put their unsolicited opinions out there. And guess what? They want to "take er' easy" and maybe not cut so soon. The market was less than pleased with that behavior.
Overall, this was a weak where some air came out of the proverbial balloon. It definitely did not kill momentum completely, but did level off what was a great streak of rate performance. Fortunately for guys like me who run hotter than a 95 Bronco, the snow has been a treat and a wonderful distraction.
As always, enjoy the snow, enjoy the weekend (make my newest recipe, its a great cold weather dish) and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 1/11/24
Good morning,
Well, dry January was a fun experiment. For those 9 days, oh boy was my body at peak performance. The crippling lack of sleep really paired nicely with the market anxiety. I've decided to rebrand as sort-of dry January and just pepper in a few more vegetables. I mostly blame the Bureau of Labor Statistics for my lack of self control this month, there's no way this is just a me problem.
Let me explain WHY the Bureau deserves the lion's share of this blame. Every single month, like clockwork, they tie on a big, dumb blindfold and play pin the tail on the Jobs report. Literally. Well, not literally, but it truly feels like it. The data is just like me after a weekend of sinning. It is consistently bloated, every single time, but somehow people still manage to be surprised. The market spirals, and then a month later, the data is adjusted down. The initial numbers, as of late, have been so far off it almost feels like they're trying to see what they can get away with. As you have probably guessed from this rant, the Jobs report for December came in MASSIVELY inflated. Hey, it was the holidays, let me throw on some stretchy pants and explain.
The Jobs report is almost always inflated this time of year with a lot of seasonal jobs in hospitality and courier services picking up. Yet, the market continues to act like my grandma after she hasn't seen me in 6 months "oh my goodness Jack, you've been eating good huh?" Yes Fluffy I sit at a desk and am essentially physically addicted to pasta. So, we lost some ground to end last week. The corrections to November's Jobs report did help us to gain some back though, as they hacked it down by 70,000 jobs ... yeah that is how inflated these reports are. I would expect a similar correction next month to the December report, but in the meantime we are subject to the market knee jerks.
Finally, the CPI data for December was released today. It was expected to jump slightly (again, expected with holiday spending), but it did come in slightly hotter than expected (since you guys alllll had to buyy the brand names this year). The saving grace was that core CPI did drop below 4%, although not much. Overall, the data was digested by the market and we did not see much movement as of yet. Overall, rates have been VERY data dependent, but the overall trend is still stable to slightly lower. So, cheers, and good luck to all real estate professionals trying dry January.
As always, have a great weekend, and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 1/4/24
Good morning,
Woah. I'm not sure if it was the double whiskey nog or the heaping plates of mac and cheese, but it sure feels like we time warped through the last 2 weeks. I'm sure everyone was hoping the big man (me not Santa) would grease up and slide down the chimney with a market update over the break, but even keyboard cowboys need to set up camp and rest sometimes. Either way, it's so good to be back. It just feels right to be here, talking you through the tumultuous mortgage market while I pretend to be on some New Year's resolution after blowing the seat out of my Target golf pants. I would not have it any other way.
Unlike myself, the market has been awfully active. After reopening Tuesday, the bond market was screamingly hungover. The 10 YR yield jumped up like me when DoorDash knocks with my THB bacon, egg and cheese. We saw it tip back over 4%, which is a poor way to start the New Year. Wednesday, however, brought the JOLTS report, which acted like a handful of Tums and cooled thins down a bit- coming in cooler than anticipated. The see-saw continued though, as today ADP (somehow) came in scalding hot, with no love from the jobless claims (down from last month). The 10 YR yield has continued to rock back and forth just below 4%, with every mortgage banker praying that we stay below 4% for the time being so we do not establish that as our new floor.
That being said, the JOLTS data leads us to believe that new hires are continuing to trend down. Despite the hot ADP and jobless claims data (which could be inflated from seasonal positions), this leads a lot of people to believe that unemployment will trend up over the next few months. Tomorrow brings the Jobs report and unemployment, which is basically just ADP and jobless claims, but wearing neck ties. These could likely also come in warm with seasonal data, but here's to hoping they don't set the 10 YR on fire.
Overall, it is still highly anticipated that these numbers will be adjusted down for seasonality in the coming months, along with unemployment rising. Outlook for rates is still to trend downward, just like my waistline when this ketosis kicks in, but I would expect a lot of volatility to continue along the way as the market is still VERY data driven. Look out for the reports tomorrow and put your jammies inside out for snow this weekend!
As always, have a great weekend, let me know if you need anything at all (and cook something delicious)!
Market Update - 12/21/23
Good morning,
Some people really phone it in this time of year (not me though, I stay tapping these keys for my people), it IS basically Christmas and New Years. It has also been a really hard year. The way I see it though, rather than lamenting the year that was, I encourage you to celebrate the progress we have made (which has been more than the fat man can stuff in a sack). Sure, we saw a couple wars get going, cash was devalued, and a minor egg crisis occurred (remember that nonsense?), but look where we are now (and even more exciting, where we are going).
I won't make this long winded, we all have "work" to do (yeah I know you're day drinking wine and trying to see if you can afford expedited shipping- I won't tell). When I first started sending these updates, inflation was running at over 9%. Well, that human flying squirrel, Jerome Powell, and his merry band of nuts worked to gnaw that down into the low 3's this year. The 10 YR yield, the Rudolph of the bond market, guiding us to a better idea of MBS demand and rate trends, has slid down like my dad after drinking the 10 beers we left out for Santa (true story, mom said Santa liked beer better). It is currently sitting below 4%, a figure we have not seen since the summer. Rates have followed suit, marching to the tune of continued lower inflation, ceased rate hikes, lower job openings, and higher unemployment. I'm not going to get up on my desk and cheer for job loss (although I did make it pretty clear what we LO's have to root for in order to provide sexier rates), but that was the Fed's main objective - economic pain to slow spending.
With that being said, the US economy has been remarkably strong despite the tiddy twister the Fed has been giving us with higher rates. GDP (though lower than expected today - good news for us) is still trending up about 5%. The American people are resilient. How else could a person look at pig lips and turn that into a hot dog? Amazing. Overall, we finally have some tailwinds. The Fed is projecting rate cuts next year, the 10 YR continues to fall, and though it is still a trickle, inflation is inflationing less every month. All of these factors breed a much more affordable and appetizing mortgage rate for you and your clients.
Thank you to you for reading this every week, and sticking through this hairy floor gumball of a year with me. I have had more fun than any lender should have in this market, and look forward to topping that next year.
As always, enjoy your weekend (and holidays), and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 12/14/23
Good morning,
I woke up this at 4:30 this morning, pasted to the couch. As I peeled open my eyes, glued shut by my contacts, and searched for my phone (which to my delight had been taking upstairs and charged by my roommate), I began recapping the prior day in my head (mainly to remember if my sleeping on the couch was a choice or an order from the better half). In the blur of celebratory glasses of Sauvy B, seasonal beers, and sushi, I smiled as I drug my ragged body up the stairs to crash in bed. Why did I smile, despite my condition being more beat up than an amateur UFC fighter? I smiled because I thought of Jerome Powell's wrinkly prune head on the conference room TV in 4K as me and boys cheered him on. For once, we wanted him to keep flapping his gums.
The Inflation Emperor Powell climbed out of fiery depths of the Federal Reserve yesterday to bring all of the good little real estate professionals a sweet treat. At 2PM EST, Fresh Prince Powell spit some of the most dovish bars we have heard in what seems like years. He, in so many roundabout words, confirmed that we are through the rate hiking cycle. He parted the kimono a bit and let us know that Fed currently projects 3 cuts next year totaling 75 BPS. Now, that projected figure is adjusted every time the Fed meets, so we could certainly see these projections adjusted based on future inflation and labor market data. That being said, dancing on Jerome's words like me by myself at a wedding before the dancing was supposed to start with my shirt unbuttoned (definitely has never happened just a turn of phrase), the 10- YR yield has pop locked and dropped it under 4%. Read that again. The 10 YR yield is under 4%. Now, we saw some inflated jobs report last week, but there are strong indicators a lot of this was falsely inflated with seasonal positions, and most economists (and part time chef, full time loan officers) believe it will be adjusted sharply down. CPI continues to move slowly down like mash potatoes through a beer bong. Overall, this was a fantastic week for rates, and brought a lot of optimism (maybe too much) into a desperately bleak market. For now, there is a reason to celebrate. So, I recommend we all take the opportunity to eat something too rich and drink something too strong and sing something you tell everyone you hate but secretly love.
If you have not started your holiday shopping, go get started now. I'm generally an XL (although I am pushing it lately) shirt size if you're buying for your favorite LO. Next week, our big data point is GDP on Thursday. Until then, bask in the words of that wrinkly bean counter, Jerome Powell.
As always, have a great weekend, and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 12/7/23
Good Morning,
This could just be my seasonal depression talking, but there is something magical about that first snow of the year. It may be pitch black at 3:58 PM Eastern Standard, but when that fluffy white precipitation starts dropping like Linus Schimminger's dandruff (sorry dude, but you were aware and did nothing to treat it) in 8th grade, I just get a beer bong of dopamine. This year has been as easy as jogging into gale force winds, but we have seen some signs of the winds dying down. Some market dopamine to pull us out of the feels if you will.
I feel like Saint Nick lately, Saint Nick if he wore a lot of pit stained pastel shirts and lied to his doctor about his alcohol intake. But here I am, nonetheless, sending out paragraphs of joy to good little real estate agents all over the eastern seaboard. We have been on a heater lately in terms of strong financial reports and 10 YR pricing, and if my Dad taught me one thing, it's that you do not get up from the table while you're on a heater. Solid parenting advice in my opinion. So, this week, we doubled down, asked the waitress for another vodka soda, and awaited the flop. Well, the heater continued. Tip your dealer, because we started off with an ice cold JOLTS report on Tuesday. The second hand got dealt, I kissed the chips for good luck, and BAM. Another hit. ADP employment came in nearly 30K under estimate. At this point, I'm flipping chips at the table like I'm the Utz man. Now, we've got everyone at the casino starting at us because tomorrow, we have Jobs and unemployment. If this follows suit, and heater continues, I would expect another nice dip in the 10 YR (currently down to 4.14%), and we would be closer to a sub 4% 10 YR which would be a major step for mortgage rates.
Keep your eyes on Bloomberg tomorrow, pour a coffee, get some popcorn, because 8:30 AM will be a major market mover. If you have questions on what happened, or understanding it, drop me a line. If you get hungry, check out loansandlinguine.com today for another stellar recipe. If you have listings going, and need some flyers for open houses, or want incentivize buyers with a buydown, call me lets talk!
As always, have a great weekend, and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 11/30/23
Good Morning,
Can I be honest here for a sec? I mean you could not stop me if you wanted to. I have had alllll sorts of CRMs. My downfall, is that my best CRM has always been a legal pad, and my CRM is just my mass email machine. The reason I am disclosing this, and parting the kimono as they say, is that last week we transitioned to a new one, that is allegedly "much more powerful." I could not tell you. What I can tell you, is that it took my a lot of tinkering to figure out how to send this market update. I was grateful for that Thanksgiving break, because if I had to send my Thursday update, I would have Thanksgiving broke my laptop in half and baked it in my decadent mac and cheese (recipe at loansandlinguine.com). Now, if you are on this email chain and do not want to be, I am sorry, feel free to unsub, but trust me, and my fans, that it is often worth the read. If you are getting like 3 of these emails, I do not know how to delete duplicate contacts, its my cross to bear. Now, lets get down to brass tacks.
Overall, since we have last chatted, the MBS market has been pretty healthy, but we do have a lot to catch up on. Fed members have been popping out the ground like prairie dogs with microphones, with the vast majority making overall dovish comments on the economy, noting the slowing labor market and overall economy. Ol' Chris Waller stood up like my drunk uncle on Thanksgiving and spouted about the potential for Spring rate cuts with inflation coming in line, which was a tremendous help to the 10 YR price. Fannie Mae picked her head up from the stuffing long enough to project rates decreasing into the upper 6's in 2024. In addition, Big Poppa FHFA stood up and gave a toast, raising loan limits to $766,550 for conventional loans. Well, little brother HUD was not to be upstaged, so he "tink tink tinked" his glass and also announced that FHA would be raising loan limits as well (to $667,000 on single family homes in the Baltimore area). Overall, Thanksgiving brought some much needed calm in the bond market. Next week, however, should bring some volatility (hopefully in the right direction).
Next week is stacked up with data higher than your little cousin outside before dinner. We start with JOLTS on Tuesdee, ADP Wednesday, jobless claims Thursday, and Jobs on Fridee. So, what I am trying to say, is find a way to enjoy your Monday, and strap on a helmet. Things could will get bumpy. There is room for optimism, though. If we trend as we did last month, we could be in for a celebration. Not like a champagne popping celebration, but like shake up a Busch Latte' and spray it on your partner type of celebration (still fun).
As always, have a great weekend, and please let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 11/16/23
Good morning,
Somedays you wake up and despite the pain in your ankle you secretly know is gout, the railroad spike in the temple from the gallon of Sutter Home, and the heartburn from the leftover chicken wings, you just feel like it is going to be a good day and nothing can stop it. I love these kind of days. I knew from the moment I opened my laptop this morning that even though the dog took a dump in the living room that I was going to see green on my computer screen. It is a beautiful day.
Why though, I am sure you are asking, other than vibes of course, is today a good day in the market? Well, on Tuesday morn, we finally saw it...a DIP (not a trickle) in CPI. Take that J Powell you dinosaur. We dropped from 3.7 to 3.2% (lower than the 3.3% estimate for year over year inflation). Market confidence that we are done with rate hikes shot up. The jobs and labor market data along with this FINALLY shows some evidence that the pain the Fed have been working so diligently to inflict is in fact, here. I'm not one to count my chickens, so I won't tell everyone here we are out of the woods, but damnit it does feel like we can see a clearing. In fact, Jobless claims were released this morning and guess what? UP. The data, time and time again, is coming up for J Powell. Now, all we can do is ride this high, and pray to economic gods that the data keeps rolling in this direction. A high level of confidence in that we are at the ceiling is tremendous for the market and will absolutely offer relief to mortgage rates, even without enacting any rate cuts just yet. So, keep the vibes positive, make today a great day despite what happens.
Cheers to the green numbers on my screen, and here's to hoping the stay that way. Make sure to full thaw your turkey, cook the stuffing separately, and get your bets in early. As always have a great day and weekend!
Market Update - 11/9/23
Good morning,
Pizza is great cold. Sometimes, I buy the large just to ensure I can secure a cold 'roni slice for the most important meal of the day- the anxiety snack on the morning commute. No better way to get the day started than heartburn and instant regret (what are desk Tums for though). That being said, when you list off things that are meant to be hot but better cold, I find the list to be short. Pizza obviously, you can make a case for leftover pasta, but at the end of the day you always feel a little sloppy- standing in front of the fridge, shirtless in your boxers swirling around some noods at 6 AM while your neighbors jog past (at least I would guess- definitely never done that). What is the point of this digression?
There is one more item that fits this bill, quite possibly better than even pizza. I am speaking about the Jobs Report. It seems backwards to root for slowdowns in jobs and wage growth, but boy howdy does it get my engine revin' to see some labor market contraction. This is just what the Fed was seeking when the scorched earth rate hike campaign began. Inflict pain by making borrowing money expensive and make the American people NOT want to spend money. Well, finally, the data is starting to reflect some of their efforts. Not only did Friday's Jobs report come in cooler than getting a cast on your arm and going to school (sup Macey you wanna sign this, yeah it hurt pretty bad but I didn't cry much), but they also revised the last two reports in a dramatic downward fashion. The 10 YR and in turn mortgage rates, dipped on this news, and we have seen SOME stability this week with much less market data being dropped on us. So, in general, it has been a pretty positive and quiet week this week. There has been plenty of Fed speak happening, and Grand Puba Powell is set to pull the cord in his back and speak today at 2 PM, so let's just keep riding this high and pray he does not say anything too market moving.
Next major data point to be released will be CPI on 11/14. It will be a heck of a way to start the week, and we all know this has been the stickiest data point (and the most important to the Fed). Hopefully, with the lagging Jobs data showing quite a bit of pain, CPI will follow suit and begin to go from a slow leak to a burst pipe in terms of the speed with which its moving down.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 11/2/23
Good morning,
It could be one of my many syndromes, but I'll tell you what... when too many good things start happening, I start getting suspicious. How can this many things in a row go so well without me blowing the crotch out of my pants trying to get out of the car or stepping in the dog poop out back that Angela "cleaned up?" It just does not make sense in my head. It's like when someone is outwardly too nice all of the time...like what are you hiding? Again, this could just be me, but if someone does a good deed for me, I fully anticipate slipping a disc trying to put my socks on later.
You may be asking, "Jack, what does your anxiety condition have to do with the mortgage market?" I'd argue that, first, it is probably the root cause of this condition, and a few others *glug glug glug*. And second, things have been...pretty damn good since the last time we chatted, and that, my friends, has me looking for a problem. We had an absolute gauntlet of data this week. ADP and JOLTS on Wednesday morning. ADP came in lighter than me standing halfway on the scale, just to see how it feels. JOLTS slid into the MBS market DMs and said "hey baby, you up?" Well the MBS market responded, and said "yeah, I'm up, come over." So, JOLTS came in strong and the market responded big time, with the 10 YR sinking under 4.7%. The MBS market gobbled up the data and asked for seconds. Well, dessert got served later that day when the Fed (as expected) kept rates at the same level once again. J Powell opened his ancient mouth after the decision and made some sounds, mostly as expected (with some slightly dovish tones at times). This morning's jobless claims data was just the amuse-bouche of this whole meal, helping push the 10 YR further down and in turn, mortgage rates as well. Job cuts were up 164% YTD and hiring took a steep turn downhill falling 46% YOY. Now, I know it's starting to feel AWFULLY chummy and friendly around here, so lets start looking for problems....
Tomorrow brings us the Jobs report, which, much like CPI has the ability to undo this progress quickly, like me eating cheesy gorditas and 3 beers for 4th meal at 1 AM after a salad and water for lunch. I can't really help it if I'm hungry and Taco Bell was offering BOGO gorditas, we call that an inflation buster deal and it would fiscally irresponsible to not take advantage. Anyways, bask in the sun today. Play Christmas music and stay up late. At 8:30 tomorrow morning, we will hope to be whistling the same tune and jobs to come in nice and cool. Here's to hoping for continued good news.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 10/26/23
Good morning,
I remember slipping on my size 16 husky cargo shorts down to my ankles as a stout young gentleman, and walking down to the park with my two older brothers. They wanted to push me on the merry-go-round, it would be fun they said. So, I pushed my bifocals tight against the bridge of my nose, tightened the straps of my double wide Sketchers, and climbed aboard. It WAS fun, at first. Then, I heard "hold on really tight" and within moments the world was spinning, my inhaler flew out of my pocket, and I could feel the Mountain Dew sloshing around my stomach the ballast of an old wooden ship. Well, after a few minutes of begging for mercy, I was able to dizzily stand up and get off that death trap. Unfortunately, I could not manage more than a step before I tripped on my feet and threw up all over my favorite camo shorts. I felt much better, but I was still super bummed about the shorts, and that is exactly how I feel about the current mortgage rate market.
50bps up, 50bps down. This is how the market has been for the past week. The highs are high and the lows are low, and after a week, we are essentially right where we were at this time last week. The market is pretty easy to predict right now, just pretend its my weight loss journey. Monday-Wednesday, catch your boy with a fistful of kale, pounding the planks and getting yolked. Thursday through Sunday, catch me slurping noodles and pairing my bourbon with chocolate, and come Monday morning I'm right back where I was last week. Well, as we know, without a true ceiling set right now the market is very data driven and reactive to headlines. Let's focus on some positive headlines. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman dropped cold, gooey Aloe Vera on the burning bond market earlier in the week. He announced that he believed the economy is slowing much faster than data suggests and they would no longer short bonds. In addition to that, this morning the ECB stopped their record streak of hiking rates faster than their tea tax in the 1700s. Now I'm not here to say the Red Coats dictate our economy (we're undefeated in Revolutions), but it is a good measuring stick based on where their inflation was compared to ours. Finally, this morning Jobless claims were up higher than expected. The Fed wants to see labor market contraction, and this is the first data point in months that did not point towards rapid expansion. Bad news is good news.
Overall, we're having a good day today in terms of the bond market and mortgage rate trends. But, like I stated earlier, this is nauseating time to be watching candle stick charts. Expect continued volatility until the Fed can provide some definitive confident ceiling for investors. Next Fed meeting is 10/31-11/1 and the Jobs report is also releases 11/1. So, this will be a monster of a day after Halloween - make sure to change out of your sexy Jerome Powell outfit and throw a tie back on for Wednesday's report and Papa Powell's presser.
As always, have a great weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 10/19/23
Good morning,
The nice thing about birthday weeks is that, much like the airport (once you're through security), they're pretty lawless. "Do you want to make that a double sir?" Well, its 6:30 AM, the guy next to me is barefoot and on speaker phone with his "boo thang" so yeah, I will have that double Jamo. Birthday week has allowed me to justify a lot of market driven drinking (someone trademark that for me) this week. "Boy, Jack, seems too early for tequila." Well Angela its my birthday in 3 days (and the 10 YR is scraping 5%). So, please, if you need to justify using airport logic this week, do it in celebration of me. Our forefathers didn't claw their way to freedom for us to have to explain why a cold filtered lager just tastes better when the sun's up.
Well, I will be honest with you. The bond market has been shrinking this week like it went swimming in cold water. The 10 YR is doing its best Wiz Khalifa impression, blazing to new highs. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is seemingly not spooking the people back to the safe harbors of the Treasuries as much as expected, at least not right now. The MBS market continues to be VERY data driven, and unfortunately for us sickos, the data has been about as pleasant as a toddler throwing their dinner on the ground and laughing in your face. We know the labor market has been growing like a hydroponics operation, and jobless claims this morning were well under expected (historic lows actually). That, coupled with retail sales coming in well over expected, has certainly accelerated an already painful world in the MBS market. I can't blame this on you all though, I myself, love to buy myself treats when I feel sad or when I hit a speed bump and it reminds me that I probably should have a salad.
That being said, it has not all been bad news. Multiple Fed officials have made some dovish comments about the future of rate hikes. The sentiment seems to be that they do not plan to hike for the remainder of the year, seemingly in fear of doing irreparable damage to the economy. The more stability we can pump into the market the better. Once traders feel confident that we have hit a ceiling, it becomes much more palatable to trade MBS (and other securities for that matter). That will lead us away from the nausea inducing tilt-a-whirl of a market we are riding on now. DJ J Powell is set to spit stupid rhymes in the Big Apple around high noon, so keep your ears peeled. If you're in NY I will give you IOU's for tons of cash to take the batteries out of his mic. Anyways, here's to hoping he echoes his peers in the Fed and adds a little more cold water on the rate hike convos.
As always, have a great day and weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 10/12/23
Good morning ,
There's nothing like CPI day. The crippling anxiety in the air. The lack of sleep. The smell of bourbon in the office, and you wonder - did someone have a tough night or did the American people spend too much again and cause Alex to make an Irish coffee. The palpable tension in your fellow LO's voice as you ask "How's your morning going?" And he tells you to "turn on Bloomberg and you'll find out Chief." There's something almost magical about a decimal point ruining your day by 8:30 AM. That being said, there's a lot more going on right now than just CPI.
Somehow, the labor market is still growing like that pile of clothes you are definitely going to fold tomorrow. Friday's report was hotter than my new haircut (sup) with over 300,000 jobs added. woah. That cranked the heat up on the market before the weekend. However, the weekend brought in new factors for the market to digest. Unfortunately and sadly, the main factor added in was the war beginning in Israel. Politics and opinions completely aside (and prayers for a quick and peaceful solution), war brings investors back to the safe harbor of the US Treasury bond. Like I have said before- war, disease, and global economic uncertainty generally means good news for interest rates (don't judge me I'm just laying out facts). The more T bonds are inhaled like me eating leftover wings inside the fridge so the dogs don't see (despite me saying you can't have any wings Gus you have bad pipes), the lower yields go. As the T bond yields go lower, generally mortgage rates tend to trend along with it. So, we ended up having a hot start to the week. Well, then September CPI is released and slammed on the brakes like every driver on 83 right before the Pepsi sign speed camera. CPI came in hotter than expected at 3.7 YOY, completely unchanged from last month. Inflation remains stickier than a movie theater floor, which gives the Fed more ammo to continue their higher for longer rhetoric. That being said, based on the Fed speakers on Monday and Tuesday, the market is pricing in a pause for the remainder of the year.... so are we done? Well who knows, we have been done twice before, so cross your fingers.
Overall, the ongoing war will continue to be an added wild card in the global economy. Inflation and the labor market both remain relatively hot and sticky (I'm so sorry for that phrasing). The market is still pricing in a pause for the November meeting, but of course today's data and upcoming reports can certainly change the sentiment. Are you sick of it yet? Volatility continues to reign, and the nauseating see saw that is the bond market continues rocking.
As always have a great day and weekend and let me know if you need anything at all!
Market Update - 10/5/23
Good morning,
I limped off the squash court this morning defeated and sore. Popped on my lightest shirt and immediately sweat through that. The day can only improve I thought to myself as I flicked off the blue Kia Sorrento who ran the stop sign on Aliceanna St (you know who you are). I took the stairs up to my office, because naturally the elevator was being used for a move, and gimped my way to my computer. After resetting my password, a daily ritual at this point, I crossed my fingers and toes as I logged in to check the market.
Well slap your grandma! The market was flatter than my weight loss journey. Pop the Andre folks, because flat is as good as straight up at this point and absolutely worthy of a celebration. The 10 YR climbed over 4.75% this week, and I was preparing to toss the proverbial toaster in the mortgage bathtub, but thankfully, mercifully, we have been able to ease back today. ADP figures came out yesterday, and they came in slimmer than a mortgage banker's wallet this year. Beautiful news. Leading up to the jobs report tomorrow, this shines some light on an otherwise cold world with rates looking like snowmen (8). While the 10 YR didn't fall, like me trying to change directions- chasing that stupid little squash ball, it did sink slowly like my confidence after getting smoked 3-1 by someone I used to consider a friend. With the 10 YR flattened out under 4.75%, and the bond market steady this morning, we turn our attention to the smelly kid in the room... Jobs.
The jobs data will be released tomorrow morning at 8:30. If Jobs can just hold it together and pretend to be cool like ADP was earlier this week, we can roll into the weekend with some momentum. There is some optimism that this could happen though, after the anemic ADP data earlier in the week.
As always, have a great day and weekend, and please let me know if you need anything at all!